Monthly Archives: December 2011

I Bought A New PC

I bought a new PC.  I got it from Best Buy.  I got this one.  It’s an HP with an AMD processor, 8GB ram, and a 1.5TB hard drive.

I used Best Buy’s “buy online and pickup in store” feature.  My old PC’s fan was breaking.  My budget was $1000-$1500, but I got a nice one for $600.  Maybe I’ll upgrade in 2-3 years instead of 4.

There was one slightly amusing bit.  I don’t have 8GB of free ram, only 7.5GB.  0.5GB is used for video memory.  I have shared video card memory and CPU memory.  Also, 15GB of my HD space is reserved for my image of Windows 7, in case I ever need to reinstall.

They didn’t give me a Windows install DVD!  It turns out that I’m supposed to make my own.  If I get a USB flash drive, I can make an “emergency reinstall Windows” boot disk.  I have a 4GB flash thumb drive, but the reinstall requires 10GB.  (I was disappointed that my old motherboard didn’t support “boot from USB drive”.  Maybe I’ll make an ubuntu install on the 4GB flash drive.)

I also can burn myself a Windows emergency reboot DVD.  Maybe I’ll burn one?  The flash drive sounds like a cleaner/better option.

They keyboard they ship with it is a real POS.  My old Microsoft Natural keyboard won’t work, because it isn’t USB connectable.  I’ll buy a new one.  They’re not that expensive.

Do You Promise To Lie?

It’s funny and pathetic that Jon Corzine hasn’t been indicted yet.  He was allowed to politely testily in front of Congress.  Maybe they should change the oath they give witnesses when they swear them in?

Do you promise to lie, pretend you don’t remember, make stuff up, and obstruct justice as much as you can, so help you Satan?

That would be a much more honest oath, whenever a bankster, corrupt CEO, or corrupt politician is asked to testify in front of Congress.

Gerald Celente And The Futures Market Broken Social Contract

The MF Global disaster should make one point painfully obvious. The “social contract” of the futures exchanges has been broken. The “social contract” of the financial system has been broken. Some people said that a COMEX warehouse receipt is safer than gold stored under your mattress. The MF Global disaster proved that statement false.

This story is interesting.  After the MF Global fraud/implosion/theft, trading volume on futures markets has decreased.

Some farmers and investors got robbed by the MF Global bankruptcy.  Now, people are shunning the futures exchanges.  What’s the point of using a futures exchange if you’re just going to get robbed by banksters?!

The banksters only get money by stealing it.  You can’t have a futures market, unless there’s farmers/miners/producers/investors to fleece.  People may start avoiding the futures market, knowing it’s one big scam.  Without customers to rob, the futures market would just be banksters pushing paper around.

Farmers were also robbed in 2008.  The price of food spiked in the summer.  The farmers had hedged with short futures.  After the spike in prices, the farmers got margin called out of their short hedges, even though they were planning to deliver and weren’t speculating.  By the time harvest came, prices crashed again, and the farmers were robbed.  Via hedging and fluctuating prices, the farmers wound up buying high and selling low.

In a time of hyperinflation, there’s no point hedging with short futures.  By hedging, you’re missing out on several months of price inflation.  There’s no point participating in a crooked futures market.  It’d be simpler to just write Lloyd Blankfein and Jamie Dimon a check, than participate in a corrupt futures market and corrupt financial system.

If effect, a farmer who sells a grain future is selling his product for 10%-20% less than what it’s actually worth.  That’s the inflation that occurs between the time the farmer sells the future, and the time that the farmer delivers.  If I were a farmer, I’d take the risk of lower prices, rather than financing bankster profits.

Many gold dealers buy directly from miners, completely bypassing futures exchanges.  Pretty soon, the real/cash price of gold might start diverging from the futures/CRIMEX price.  That already happened somewhat in Fall 2008.  The “official” price of gold crashed, but many dealers had no inventory.  If you want physical, you may need to start paying higher and higher premiums to the “official” price.

This story was really interesting.  Gerald Celente was robbed by Jon Corzine and MF Global!  Gerald Celente writes a lot about gold investing.  I recognized the name.  I thought he was a sophisticated and literate investor.  He was someone who advocated “Buy a future, pay cash, and get a warehouse receipt.”  He also advocated for taking actual delivery on your future and warehouse receipt, taking physical possession of the gold good delivery bar.  I bet he isn’t going to advocate for trading futures anymore!  It isn’t stupid to pay more for actual coins than for futures, if the futures market is only going to rob you!

There’s another interesting bit.  His broker was Lind-Waldock.  They were bought out by MF Global a few years before the bankruptcy.  They kept operating under the name Lind-Waldock, even though they were now part of MF Global.

Gerald Celente made another interesting point.  A few weeks before everyone else, some insiders knew that MF Global was going down.  They moved their accounts and preserved 100% of their equity, while everyone else got shafted in bankruptcy.  If you’re an average slave, by the time you hear a rumor that your broker is going bankrupt, it’s too late to take your money out.

If MF Global customers lost $1.2B, then someone else made $1.2B.  If Corzine didn’t rob his customers, then other MF Global creditors would have gotten $1.2B less in the bankruptcy.  Allegedly, most of the $1.2B went to JP Morgan Chase and the Jamie Dimon bonus fund.  That is a huge gaping hole in the investigation, “Who got the $1.2B?”  With a non-corrupt justice system, that money would be clawed back and returned to customers.  In bankruptcy, MF Global’s customers should be senior to all other creditors.

Any transaction made in the months before bankruptcy should be subject to clawback.  A common trick is “Make a big contribution to the executive pension plan before filing for bankruptcy.”  Another common trick is “Pay off preferred creditors (JP Morgan Chase) before filing for bankruptcy, leapfrogging other creditors in bankruptcy.”  Back when judges weren’t complete tools, they would claw back such payments and return them to the other creditors.

Maybe that’s why Corzine is getting off easy.  Any detailed investigation would involve investigating JP Morgan Chase.  Corzine may be prepared to spill his secrets, if he’s charged with a crime.

I once asked my discount broker if they would let me buy futures in my account.  They said they no, but advised me to use Lind-Waldock.  I never got around to opening an account, but was seriously thinking about it.  I dodged a bullet there!  For now, I’m sticking with paper gold, but eventually I’ll start with physical.  I figure I’ll buy a few ounces at a time, so that I’ll know my true robbery risk.

My discount broker claims a strong track record of honesty and integrity.  That means nothing.  At any time, any broker can pull a Corzine and rob customers.

It’s interesting to hear the details of how Gerald Celente got robbed.  I’ll use specific numbers.  Suppose that Gerald Celente owned one future for $200k and had $200k of equity in his account.  In other words, he had one fully paid future contract and was waiting for delivery.  I’m using $200k for the future instead of $160k, to keep the numbers round.  (A good delivery bar is sometimes 100oz, and gold is around $1600/oz right now.)

Corzine and MF Global raided customer funds to gamble in European bonds.  All customers are treated equally in bankruptcy, even those with no leverage in their account.  Even if you owned a fully-paid COMEX warehouse receipt, a specifically numbered bar that’s held in custody for you, you only get 60% of your assets in bankruptcy just like anyone else.  It’s like you had a safe deposit box in a bank, the bank goes bankrupt, and the contents of your safety deposit box are seized by the bankruptcy judge and split evenly among all creditors.  You could say “WTF?  That’s my bar of gold!”, but that isn’t the way corruption works.

The bankruptcy trustee ruled that every customer gets 60% of their equity.  Gerald Celente now has $120k of equity in his account instead of $200k.  However, that $120k equity is transferred out of his futures account into the bankruptcy trustee’s account!

Gerald Celente has a gold future but zero equity.  He is hit with a margin call and is forced to sell his future.  His $120k equity is tied up in bankruptcy court!  He can’t get that money until the bankruptcy trustee decides to pay it out!

Not only did Gerald Celente lose 40% of his equity, he also got margin called out of his gold future!  His liquid savings are tied up in the bankruptcy court!  If he gets his cash back in a year and buys another gold future or gold coins, the price of gold might be 50% more.  Not only did he lose his equity, but he’s also going to get robbed by inflation from now until whenever the bankruptcy trustee decides to pay him!

The social contract of the futures markets has been broken.  The clearing and settlement system is supposed to protect customers against losses.  Due to a technicality, the exchanges’ clearing fund isn’t available to reimburse MFG customers.  Technically, MF Global never defaulted on its clearing obligations, because they were raiding segregated customer funds to stay solvent!  This was internal fraud by MF Global, and not a clearing default.  Due to this loophole, the clearing and settlement system isn’t available to reimburse MF Global’s customers/victims.

Gerald Celente pointed out “There’s always a loophole that banksters can use to cheat you.  Even if they change the law, there’s always another loophole.”  What Corzine did was *ALREADY* illegal.  Even if the law is changed after MF Global, there will always be another loophole for next time.  When laws are changed, more loopholes are added than removed.  The much-touted financial “reform” law couldn’t prevent the MF Global fraud.  There’s nothing that prevents a CEO and his minions from lying to customers and regulators.  There isn’t even a credible threat of prison and loss of savings if you get caught.

Corzine’s assets are well shielded in offshore trusts, even if he is successfully sued.  Corzine han’t been indicted yet.  Even if convicted, he’ll only get a few years in jail.  In this manner, the State protects criminals.  If a disgruntled customer decided to get his own justice, he’d be charged with a crime.  True justice would be “Lock Corzine in a room with 100 MF Global victims, and the police ignore whatever happens next.”  (In a wergeld system, it is acceptable to murder someone who owes you more money than the fine for murder.  In a free market justice system, if someone owed you $10M due to criminal negligence and couldn’t pay, you could just murder them and call it even.)

If you’re a bank CEO who lost trillions of dollars speculating in mortgage bonds, you get a bailout and no criminal charges.  Bernard Madoff robbed millionaires and insiders; Madoff went to jail; Congress retroactively changed the SIPC law, partially bailing out out Madoff’s victims.  Corzine robbed farmers and individuals.  Too bad!  I can’t believe that Corzine hasn’t been indicted yet.  Corzine gets to politely testify in front of Congress, saying “I can’t recall where the money went!”,  and the Congressmen and media cover him with respect, rather that saying “Liar! Liar!”

I never understood why “I’m a stupid CEO who didn’t know what’s going on.  My subordinates lied to me.” is accepted as a valid defense.  Corzine was smart enough to fire a risk manager who objected to the big bets on European bonds.  If he’s smart enough to fire a risk manager that objects to his risky trades, then he’s smart enough to know where the money went.

It’s amusing logic.  It was urgent to spend $700B in TARP bailing out big banks (and even more secret loans from the Federal Reserve).  MF Global customers lost $1.2B, and not a penny is available for them.  It’s a clearcut double standard.  Insiders get bailed out and the little guy is SOL.

I’m actually surprised that there hasn’t been a bailout for Corzine’s victims.  If I were a bankster, I’d ask for a bailout, for no other reason than to preserve the Masquerade.  It’s worth $1.2B to prevent the complete collapse of trust in the futures markets.  I guess the banksters are so greedy that they don’t understand that.  At some point, they’re going to far.  They’re stealing too much too fast, accelerating the collapse.

Suppose there’s a “run on the gold exchanges”.  People refuse paper and demand physical.  If paper gold is levered 100x or more over physical, and if 10% of investors demand physical and delivery, the whole scam unravels.  When you have a fractional reserve system, only a small % of people need to stop participating, in order to collapse everything.

The social contract of the futures markets has been broken.  A customer is supposed to be able to make a trade, pay for it, and take delivery.  A farmer/miner is supposed to be able to short hedge, to lock in prices so he has predictable profits.  (Price volatility is created by banksters, and the banksters profit via inflation, leverage, and long futures.)  A customer in a futures market should not have default risk and counterparty risk.  The social contract of the financial system has been broken.  A bank is supposed to be a safe place to store your savings.  If you keep money in a checking account, you’re guaranteed to get robbed by inflation.

It’s too risky to use the State financial system.  Nothing prevents a CEO from stealing your savings and lying about it.  There isn’t even a credible threat of prison for banksters who get caught stealing.

Statists like to cite the “social contract” as the source of government’s legitimacy.  What happens when that alleged agreement is flagrantly and obviously broken?  I am forced at gunpoint to obey.  The other side isn’t even pretending to hold their part of the agreement they forced on me?  Once you understand the financial system and monetary system, it’s obvious that State leaders sold everyone into bankster slavery.  Once you realize how badly Congress made a mess of the financial system, you realize that those clowns don’t have any legitimacy at all.

Payroll Tax Cut

There was a lot of debate regarding the “payroll tax cut”.

The “payroll tax” is an income tax on salaries.  The payroll tax funds the Ponzi scams of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

The payroll tax is approximately 15%, with half paid by employees and half paid by employers.  That is a clever trick.  A stupid person would say “FSK, you’re wrong.  You only pay a 7.5% payroll tax and not 15%.”  That is false.  Because employers must pay the 7.5% payroll tax, salaries are 7.5% lower to compensate.  Even though the employer pays the tax, it still comes out of the pool of money otherwise available to employees.

The proposal is a 2% cut in the employee portion but not the employer portion.  That makes the cut seem larger than it actually is.

It’s a temporary cut and not a permanent cut.  This enables Congress to have another debate in a few months.  “Tax cuts” are always temporary.  This enables Congress to periodically have tax cut debates and seem like heroes.  With progressive tax rates and inflation, there’s a tax hike every year, even if Congress does nothing, because inflation pushes people into higher tax brackets.

When Congress passes a law, they don’t pass a law with just one thing.  They bundle a whole bunch of stuff together.  There’s one high-profile thing and some dirty tricks.  Then, if a Congressman votes against the other stuff, he’s blamed for voting against the popular part of the law.  Both Republicans and Democrats added other things to the “payroll tax cut extension” bill.  The Republicans were complaining about the other stuff, and not the payroll tax cut.  The Republicans in the House caved and voted for the Senate/Democrat version of the law.

There are two huge fallacies in the debate.

Arguing over a 2% tax cut ignores the real issue.  All taxation is theft.  This issue is obfuscated, because politicians and the mainstream media argue about tax hikes and tax cuts.  They never discuss the possibility that all taxes are illegitimate and that all taxation is theft.

Also, the “payroll tax cut” isn’t a tax cut.  To preserve the illusion of solvency in the Social Security Ponzi scam, the general fund will reimburse the Social Security Trust Fund for the 2% loss.

It is pointless to cut income taxes without also cutting spending.  The payroll tax is cut by 2%, but the inflation tax increases by an equal amount.

By raising the inflation rate, that’s a stealth bank bailout.  Suppose a bank owns a $500k foreclosed mortgage on a house currently worth $300k.  If there’s 10% inflation, the value of the house is now $330k, and the bank’s loss was cut from $200k to $170k.  Notice how 10% inflation cut the bank’s loss by 15%.  If you add the power of leverage and a 0% Fed Funds Rate, inflation is a huge boon for the banksters.

The “payroll tax cut” debate is one big fnord.  It’s pointless to cut taxes without cutting spending.  That’s the brilliant evil design of paper money.  One tax is cut, while the inflation tax increases.  A tax cut debate ignores the most important issue, which is “All taxation is theft!”

The Mainstream Media Brings Out The Ron Paul Hate

Every Republican candidate has had a chance to be the “anointed frontrunner”, except Ron Paul. It’s self-fulfilling propaganda. The mainstream media ignores Ron Paul because he has no chance of winning. If the mainstream media ignores Ron Paul, then he has no chance of winning.

However, Ron Paul might win Iowa and/or New Hampshire. If that happens, it’ll be too obviously corrupt if Ron Paul is ignored. Does Ron Paul have so much support that it’ll be too obvious if he gets Diebolded out of a primary win?

The mainstream media says “Ron Paul has some extremely vocal supporters on the Internet. That doesn’t translate to winning an election. (especially when we control the information that is presented to the sleeping masses)”

That’s missing the point. Why does Ron Paul have such dedicated support? Why does Ron Paul inspire dedicated hardcore support, but not the other candidates? Are Ron Paul supporters the biggest fruitcakes, or the most informed? That’s one problem with democracy. Even if I’m more than 1000x better informed than most people, I still get only one vote.

There is no chance that Ron Paul can win the nomination. Even if Ron Paul gets a majority or plurality of delegates in the primaries, he won’t get the superdelegates, Republican party insiders. The superdelegates can block the nomination of any non-approved candidate. If he does get cheated by the superdelgates, Ron Paul should have the balls to walk out of the convention and say “This election isn’t legitimate!” He won’t do that, especially if he wants Rand Paul to do well.

Articles like this one are offensive. Notice the headline “What Ron Paul Thinks Of America”. The headline should have been “Ron Paul Is An Arrogant Elitist Douchebag”, but that would be too obvious. That’s a very common psychopath trick. You indirectly imply that someone is evil or incompetent, without explicitly directly saying it.  It is interesting to notice the propaganda tricks.  I’m not fooled anymore.  Most people are fooled, and that’s what counts in a democracy.

I wonder if people are “developing immunity” to propaganda?  As mind control tricks become more refined, are people reacting and becoming harder to fool?

This story is interesting. The mainstream media is making a stink out of racist comments Ron Paul made in a newsletter more than 10 years ago. Ron Paul does have a valid point. He said “You media twits promote racism by mentioning it over and over again. I admit that the newsletter was a mistake. Let’s move on and talk about important things.”

Ron Paul walked out of an interview with CNN when they kept pounding him about the newsletter. Most mainstream media interviews are not impartial, especially when lynching is the goal. The interviewer was given marching orders to keep mentioning the newsletter and to refuse to discuss anything else. The goal is to make Ron Paul flustered, and then the interview is creatively edited. In effect, the interviewer forced Ron Paul to walk out, but the spin is that Ron Paul was the rude one who walked out.

If you’re talking like a sane person, if the other person says “I don’t want to talk about this!”, you move on and talk about something else.  The interviewer was ordered to keep pressing about the racist newsletter.  That was the propaganda goal of the interview.

The “racist newsletter” angle is clever spin. If Ron Paul were attacked for his anti-Federal Reserve viewpoint or anti-big government, then that might start a discussion. “Ron Paul wrote something racist 10 years ago. Therefore, all of Ron Paul’s viewpoints are wrong.” is ironclad reasoning, according to State anti-logic.

There isn’t much Ron Paul really can do, even if elected. Ron Paul wouldn’t use the President’s power to label people as terrorists and execute them without trial. That would be a quick way to get rid of all the banksters and lobbyists.

It’s interesting to notice the mainstream media attack on Ron Paul.  It would be too obviously corrupt, to criticize his view on the Federal Reserve and big government.  Instead, he’s attacked for his old newsletter, which has already been discussed a lot.  Similarly, Herman Cain’s “sexual harassment” news was an old story.  It was dragged out and prominently displayed, to keep him from winning.  By repeatedly hyping a negative story or by censoring it and not mentioning it, the mainstream media can determine who wins.  For example, suppose that the mainstream media pounded Obama for his connections to Corzine as much as they hounded Ron Paul for his newsletter.  If they did that, he would have zero chance of getting reelected.

Reader Mail – 12/18/2011 To 12/24/2011

Note: Due to a defect in the rawr plugin, the formatting for this post shows up wrong on the blog homepage, but it does show up correctly if you view it as a single post or in a RSS reader.
Simbo commented on node.js Is VB6 - Does node.js Suck?.
Sounds like you hot rejected to me

Yes, they rejected me. They still don't have a beta for their website. I found a job with a business that isn't going to be bankrupt in a year.

I've learned the hard way. It's a bad idea to work for scum and idiots. I don't feel bad that they rejected me. They're going to get the outcome they deserve; their startup will be a failure.

commented on "Conflict-Free Minerals" And Economic Illiteracy.
conflict free has to do with quality of life not quantity of macbooks

Esse commented on Weird Legal Document.
Amazingly, some people have multiple sets of adult teeth. (example: Pull one out and another one comes in. Possibly someone with this incredibly rare condition had two extractions on a "single tooth" (meaning same tooth number), which rather than pay the $100 or whatever, they probably engaged in tens of thousands of dollars in legal expensese challenging, followed by the addition to the forms you saw.

Really Cowardly Anonymous commented on Reader Mail - 12/11/2011 To 12/17/2011.
Okay, so what I said about correlation could do with some elaboration. What I meant is that yes, it is not 100% proven that this correlation does imply causation. But there's a lot of evidence to back it up. The greenhouse effect is a known theory, the real question is whether the amounts of CO2 and CH4 mankind puts into the atmosphere is enough to cause it. And we're pretty sure that it is. The climatologists may be wrong, but no-one's come up with a better theory, and hanging around waiting for the temperature to rise and then say "okay, so the correlation did imply causation after all!" is a terrible idea given that the consequences would be mostly irreversible.

Yes, we are in a warming cycle. Technically we're not even out of the last Ice Age yet (there's still ice on both poles, which is geologically rare). The oddity is that the temperature appears to be going up WAY faster than it should be, and this started relatively recently.

Also, fudging data is not OK. But the crap drops out anyway. My point was more that "Some climatologists fudged their data!" does not mean "All climate theory is lies!". I hope not, anyway...

Actually, I also dispute "CO2 greenhouse effect". The big question is "How much CO2 causes how much warming?" I've never seen a satisfactory answer.

One guy did an experiment with a tank of air and CO2, and concluded "CO2 doesn't really improve the ability of air to hold heat." I'd like to see that experiment reproduced.

"Some people forged their data. Therefore, all those researchers are wrong." is false. However, they *DID* destroy their raw data, making it impossible for anyone to independently verify their results. It shows an evil mindset. State funding for research really distorts things. Those scientists who committed fraud got away with it. Many people still cite their fake research as if it were a fact.

Even if you believe "CO2 causes global warming!", making the State bigger is *NEVER* the solution. All the proposed carbon credit/tax laws are corporate welfare laws.

f commented on Reader Mail - 12/11/2011 To 12/17/2011.

That is frequently cited.

First, animals in a zoo aren't in their natural environment.

Second, my observations of humans count more than what any scientist says.

Also, animals can also be crazy. It might be the same mechanism as in humans, where low ranking people find same-sex partners because they can't find opposite-sex partners. Most animals will take an opposite-sex partner, if an opportunity comes up.

Esse commented on MF Global Lesson - Don't Buy Futures, Only Physical.
Yep. I've been telling people for years that warehouse gold is sold on a fractional reserve basis and doesn't really exist. No one believed me. Now they are all screwed. Oh well. I'm sure next time I warn them about anything they will say I am crazy again. Sucker born every minute and they never learn.

Esse commented on MF Global Lesson - Don't Buy Futures, Only Physical.

Also, two more points.

First, there is vastly more "gold" that is held in gold deposit receipts than has been mined of gold throughout all of history. So where did the phantom gold come from if not from earth? Mars? No! The answer is it doesn't exist.

Second, when you buy gold now, the government demands that the sale be registered with them for "tax purposes". What that means is that they have your address and amount you should have so they know where to come and get you when gold is declared illegal a few years from now.

"Start an gold/silver/FRN barter network" is one of my favorite agorist business ideas.

If I'm ever prosecuted, I'll tell the jury "WTF? The prosecutor is going after me but not Dick Fuld and Jon Corzine?"

Here's another interesting bit. The "real" (cash) price of gold may start to diverge from the "official" COMEX/CRIMEX price. For example, the "official" price of gold might be $2000/oz, but if you want an actual physical gold coin, you may have to pay $3000+/oz.

After the MF Global blowup, many investors are saying "WTF? Why would anyone every buy a future or hold a warehouse receipt?"

Jason commented on The "Fair Value" Of The Stock Market Is Zero.
You touched a very valid point. I believe only very few traders/investors can make more than about 15% profit/year averaged over bull and bear markets.

On this page:

you can find some charts (and more) that underline your statement that inflation eats up a lot more than many of us think - see the Dow Jones Index, for example. It went down, practically in a straight line, for the past decade by more than 80%, when measured in real commodities/gold.

Also the trading volume in the US market and probably world wide has been going down fast and continuously since 2007 as seen in the DJIA chart with "on balance volume".

Although I used to trade shares myself I now hope the stock market will disappear or at least lose its current (over)driving role for "growth" in a future "economy". We are past scarcity with plenty of technology held back by the artificial need to employ people full time.

Fair distribution - not economic growth and planned obsolescence - is the challenge of this century.

Inflation helps provide the illusion that the stock market is a good deal. The number on your statement goes up, but you aren't keeping pace with true inflation.

dionysusal commented on Time Travel And Banking.
>That would be an amusing “science fiction” story. Someone goes back in time, tries that trick, and fails miserably.

I agree. So, what are you standing around for? Get started writing the screenplay. Filming starts in early 2013. :)

"Promote freedom via standup comedy!" and "Start an independent filmmaker business!" are on my list of things to do.

Anonymous Coward commented on Time Travel And Banking.

Now if you went back in time even for just 12 to 24 months, you could make a ton of money on the stock market.

There are resource companies with real wealth in the ground (means their share price can't drop too much) that do have their share price doubling.

OK, suppose you have a time machine. You go back in time and feed yourself stock picks. What would happen?

You'd be investigated for insider trading. Eventually, they'll notice you had a time machine, and you'll die in an "accident".

Anonymous Coward commented on Time Travel And Banking.

Banksters are in for short-term wins and now rely on high frequency trading.

Why should a bankster take even the slightest risk when they can have risk-free wins via programmatic high frequency trades and borrowing at one rate (from government) and lending at another (to government!)?

Learn from the weakness they expose. What can you do that a bankster can't?

I don't have the ability to borrow directly from the Federal Reserve at 0%. That puts me at a disadvantage whenever I participate in the financial system casino.

I'm also not "too big to fail". That's another disadvantage when participating in the financial system casino. If I use leverage, I'm going to get wiped out during the next recession, whereas insiders always get a bailout.

The best I can do is protect my savings from theft, by buying physical gold and silver and hiding it someplace safe.

Anonymous Coward commented on My Old Blog Is Still Making AdBrite Money!.
One man reverse compiled my software product, hacked out the security code and rebuilt what remained as an application. I think the security code I had in it did hinder him an bit because he only managed to fish out a small fraction of my functionality.

He made mistakes and really made a bodge of the application he launched minus the security code. So I was quite lucky in a way. Obviously because what he relaunched was such rubbish, I am lucky that it wouldn't have hurt me much.

He rewrote various bits of my website into his website. I could tell what he had done, because he only copied a bit here and a bit there and what he wrote didn't make sense with the other bits he left out. So I knew not only had he copied my software but he has used my website as a template for what he wrote on his website.

Anyway AMUSINGLY for some search terms, Google is giving this copyright pirate a highwe search ranking than my original website that was up an running for 7 years before he came along!

I did write to this man and he got my message and eventually he took the software he stole from me down, but he website is still up and running and Google gives it a very high rank, despite the fact it is a website advertising software it no longer hosts.

My Old Blog Is Still Making AdBrite Money!

My old blogspot blog is still making around $5/month from AdBrite.  My regular readers are here now, but my Google search traffic is mostly the same.  That is amusing.

I’m still mad at AdBrite for banning my new blog.  Now that I have a new job, I’m not spending any time looking for new ad options.

Time Travel And Banking

This is a pretty common “science fiction” scenario.  Suppose you had a time machine.  You go back in time, deposit $1 in a back, return to the present, and now you’re rich!

That isn’t what would actually happen.  Suppose you actually went back in time 100 or 1000 years, and made a deposit, and traveled back to the present.  What would have happened?

The inflation was more than interest paid, and you lost your deposit.

The government changed the law, nationalizing bank deposits.

The bank might have gone bankrupt, and you lost your deposit.

The government might have failed, and you lost your deposit.

The bank started charging more fees, and you lost your deposit.

There was a law that said the State can claim idle deposits, and they stole your deposit.

Even if you could go back in time and make a deposit, you would not made a profit.  Even if you make several stops and withdraw at the right time, you still might not make much money.

That’s an interesting lie.  “If you leave money in a bank or investment untouched, you will profit.”  Money left in a bank account over time has *NEGATIVE* expectation.  That would be an amusing “science fiction” story.  Someone goes back in time, tries that trick, and fails miserably.

The “Fair Value” Of The Stock Market Is Zero

I hear this subject frequently debated.  The DJIA/S&P/NASDAQ should be at 5000, 10000, 20000 or whatever.

It is misleading to talk about the actual valuation.  Why?

Stocks underperform true inflation.  Over the past 10 years, stocks have underperformed true inflation (gold) by nearly 1% per month.

Now, a pro-State troll says “A clever person can pick stocks profitably.”  That makes as much sense as “If you make the right picks, you can win at Roulette.”  Nobody is a clever enough stock picker to overcome a 1% deficit *PER MONTH*.

Now, a pro-State troll says “Stocks are cheap!  You can buy cheap, wait for a spike, and cash out for a profit.”

Here is an analogy.  To keep things simple, suppose that inflation were 0%.  I tell you “You can deposit money with me.  I’ll take 1% per month, but I’ll give you a random bonus or deduction whenever you make a deposit.”  Does that sound like a good deal?  Would you take it?  I’ll even say “I’ll give you a bunch of envelopes, some with deductions and some with bonuses.  You get to pick which one, when you make a deposit.  If you’re clever, it’ll be a good deal!”  Would you do it now?

Even if stocks are cheap, they can stay cheap for months or years.  In the meantime, you’re paying that 1%/month cost to the financial casino.

Stocks underperform intlation by 1% *PER MONTH*.  That’s a huge handicap to overcome, no matter how clever a stock picker you are.

The number on your statment may increase, but you’re getting ripped off by inflation and all the fraud/waste/theft of a large corporate bureaucracy.

Most people think that their investments grow exponentially.  That’s only true if returns exceed inflation.  If your return is less than inflation, then you have asymptotic growth and not exponential growth. If your real return on savings is -10% per year, then the most you can ever save is 10x your annual savings rate.

It was very shocking to realize that the stock market is one big scam.  It’s like discovering that Santa Claus doesn’t exist.

Given that stocks consistently underperform inflation, the “fair value” of the stock market is zero.  Anybody who claims they can pick stocks well enough to overcome the true cost of inflation/fraud/theft is lying or delusional.  If you invest in the stock market, you’re guaranteed to be robbed.